Champions League semi-final second legs: betPawa BIG match insights
The final in Istanbul on 10th June is a step closer but we still don’t know who will be contesting it. Here’s a recap of the semi-finals so far and a look ahead at what we can expect in the second legs. Will Inter get the job done against their fierce city rivals? Who’s advancing between Manchester City and Real Madrid? It’s on a knife edge.
Inter (2) vs (0) AC Milan
The Rossoneri have a mountain to climb, but stranger things have happened
Inter’s early blitz leaves Milan floundering
The Nerazzurri are now the designated ‘home’ side and will be roared on by a crowd dressed predominantly in blue and black.
The first leg at San Siro couldn’t really have started in a more disastrous fashion for Milan. They went 2-0 down inside 11 minutes to goals from Edin Džeko and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, and then Algerian playmaker Ismaël Bennacer was forced off with an injury. They did gradually improve and grow into the contest, but that wasn’t reflected in the final score.
Milan caught napping
A feature of Inter’s play this season, as we discussed in our preview of this first leg, is the usage of 2 physical strikers and 2 wing-backs who provide the width. Inter boss Simone Inzaghi got the most out of this quartet against Milan and then substituted 3 of them, retaining right wing-back Denzel Dumfries for the full 90 minutes. Džeko scored the 8th-minute opener, left wing-back Federico Dimarco assisted Mkhitaryan’s 11th-minute strike and the damage for the night was already done.
Latest team news
Inter are unlikely to make any changes to a winning formula.
Milan will be sweating on the fitness of superstar Portuguese attacker Rafael Leão, who has reportedly just agreed a new deal with the club. Their chances of a miraculous comeback would be significantly increased should the 23-year-old pass a fitness test and take his place in the side. He was sorely missed in the first leg. The aforementioned Bennacer is also a major doubt.
Rotation is the name of the game for Inzaghi
Before Saturday’s match with Sassuolo, Inter had played 50 games this season and their 4 central strikers have shared the load up top. Lautaro Martínez has the most starts (40), followed by Edin Džeko (30), Romelu Lukaku (16) and Joaquin Correa (14). So though it’s likely that Martínez and Džeko will start again, it’s clear that Inzaghi has faith in all of his forwards to contribute.
Bragging rights
According to Opta stats, Inter have now beaten rivals Milan 3 times in a single season for the first time since 1994/95. They don’t even need to clinch a fourth to advance to their first Champions League final since 2010. They’d love to do it though.
A BIG Derby della Madonnina awaits and Milan need a response if they are to
and book their place in the final.
Did you know?
Fikayo Tomori became the first Englishman to appear in a Champions League semi-final for a non-English club since Steve McManaman in May 2003 for Real Madrid (via OptaJoe)
Likely XIs
Milan (4-2-3-1): Maignan; Calabria, Kjær, Tomori, Hernández; Krunić, Tonali; Saelemaekers, Díaz, Leão; Giroud
Inter (3-5-2): Onana; Škriniar, Acerbi, Bastoni; Dumfries, Barella, Çalhanoğlu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Džeko, Martínez
Man City (1) vs (1) Real Madrid
Fascinating game of footballing chess ends 1 apiece
City’s possessional dominance vs Madrid’s calm, confident poise
A fascinating, tactically tense football match ended 1-1 and it’s a scoreline that pretty much reflects what went down at the Bernabéu. Madrid allowed City to have the ball in the first half for large periods, staying in a disciplined shape while biding their time for opportunities. Their BIG moment arrived when the excellent Eduardo Camavinga waltzed through City’s press from left-back and laid the ball off to Vinícius Jr. who walloped the ball beyond a helpless Ederson into the City net.
Having the ball can sometimes be dangerous
The second half was totally different. Madrid dominated the opening exchanges and enjoyed the lion’s share of possession, and really could have been 2-0 up. Instead, Kevin De Bruyne stepped up and did what he does best, produce the goods when it really matters, with his low drive arrowing into the net. It was no less than City deserved. Exactly half of KDB’s 14 Champions League goals have now been scored from outside the box.
The Belgian scored in both Premier League matches against Arsenal this season too, proving his credentials in the BIGGEST games against his club’s rivals for this season’s most coveted prizes.
Pep’s well-oiled winning machine
Since a defeat to Tottenham in February, City have gone 21 matches unbeaten across all competitions, winning 17 and drawing 4 (writing ahead of their match at Everton on Sunday). A trio of those draws have come in Champions League away games. Pep Guardiola’s team have hit their stride at the perfect time and are unbeaten in the Champions League this season.
Write Benzema off at your peril
Karim Benzema didn’t have his best night in the first leg but the Frenchman tends to come alive on occasions like this. He scored 3 times against City last season and has 90 Champions League goals throughout an illustrious career. Another one and he’ll go level with Robert Lewandowski as the third-most prolific player in the competition’s history.
Did you know?
Real Madrid have progressed from just 2 of their 9 Champions League knockout stage ties when failing to win the first leg at home – both against Man Utd in 1999/00 and 2012/13 (via OptaJoe)
Tactical tweaks
Intriguingly, Guardiola elected to make zero substitutions at the Bernabéu. With that in mind, he’s likely to ring the changes in the Premier League before reverting back to his favoured 11 against Madrid.
With key central defender Éder Militão returning from suspension, Los Blancos boss Carlo Ancelotti could be tempted to deploy Eduardo Camavinga back in his favoured central midfield slot. That would likely mean sacrificing an attacking player and utilising the versatile Fede Valverde in a wide role.
Likely XIs
Real Madrid (4-3-3): Courtois; Carvajal, Militão, Rüdiger, Alaba; Kroos, Modrić, Camavinga; Valverde, Benzema, Vinícius Jr.
Man City (4-3-3): Ederson; Walker, Stones, Dias, Akanji; Gündoğan, Rodri, De Bruyne; Silva, Haaland, Grealish